GoI70

Guess the Mess is GoI70′s first big-time prize contest and educational game. The rules for playing and winning are set out in detail here. Just post your best guess for the extent and timing of the Sunday peak traffic delay to the GoI70 Messages network either on your computer or your mobile phone.

Smart contestants will want to know the ebb and flow of traffic on I-70. Since we want everyone to have a fair chance, this post will tell you what you need to know to make a smart guess. The prizes are terrific – two pair of lift tickets to Arapahoe Basin and Copper Mountain- and the competition will be hot, read carefully!

Guess the Mess allows you I-70 lovers (and haters) a chance to demonstrate your traffic insight and traveler’s savvy. To win you must predict the extent and timing of the traffic delay at the Sunday eastbound peak along the I-70 corridor from Vail to Morrison. By identifying the height of the jam on Sunday, you will also know the best time to be off the highway, enjoying dinner or shopping in our mountain towns.

I-70 Traffic is Predictable

The flow of peak hour traffic on I-70 is predictable. If the roads are clear and nobody runs into the median while texting his current position, then the the highway begins to fill up around 2 pm and very soon each extra car causes highway speeds to drop.

There are several key points where traffic slows first – the approach to the Eisenhower Tunnel, the bottom of Georgetown hill thru Empire Junction and the narrow turns through Idaho Springs. Speeds on Vail Pass tend to depend as much on the current weather conditions as on the volume of cars. You can watch these spots in near real time on the GoI70 Travel Planning tab or on the GoI70 mobile app at http://goI70.com/mobile.

Presidents Day Traffic

Last Monday was Presidents Day and it is a good example of what to expect this Sunday. The Y axis shows the additional time that it would take someone leaving Vail at the time found along the X axis. The delay is calculated as the traveler makes the 82 mile, 1 hour and 20 minute trip back to Denver’s western gateway.

Put another way the worst moment to leave Vail would have been at 4:15 when your travel time would have been an extra 66 minutes. That’s time enough for dinner and by 6 the delay was only a few minutes.
No, we are not picking on Vail. We just have good data from Colorado Department of Transportation for that trip. Since most of the delay was between Silverthorne and the Twin Tunnels, travelers from all the resorts experienced similar delays. Skipping over Loveland Pass was no answer either – a small avalanche put a stop to that short cut Monday. These are all classic Sunday and holiday traffic dynamics.

A Quick History

The snow was great Sunday, February 22, 2009; the ride home was long.

One more, here is what happened the year before as a Pacific storm came in during the afternoon.

A Few Conclusions

These three examples give a very nice picture of the normal range of traffic delays that might happen this coming Sunday.

1. The slowdown will begin between 2 and 4 pm.
2. The onset is rapid – the highway gets slow in a hurry.
3. The peak comes between 3:30 and 5, unless something happens on the highway.
4. Weather matters. Sometimes a little, sometimes a lot.

Simple, eh! Now check the weather, add your own insight and make a guess. Will the highway be faster or slower than Presidents Day? February 22, 2009? February 24, 2008? What time will it peak? Guess the Mess and have a great day in the mountains.

Traffic Data Courtesy CDOT, processing by Western Analytics

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