GoI70

We are determined to make it worth your time to read this blog – this week’s first prize in our Guess the Mess contest is a 2 person, 2 day, 2 night ski package to Breckenridge Ski resort – it’s worth $1000.  Here is how to play and win Guess the Mess for Sunday, February 28th.

Playing is Simple

All you have to do is send us text message on our Messages Twitter channel or an email guessing what time on Sunday traffic will be at it’s slowest across the I-70 corridor as measured from Vail to Morrison on the western edge of the Denver metro region. You can enter at any time before 3 pm on Sunday, February 28th.

Tell us the time of the peak delay and how many extra minutes of travel delay exist on the road at that moment. Last week the correct answer was: 4:42 pm & 141 minutes (of extra travel time.)

Send us a message and you are entered. Detailed contest rules are here, but almost everyone who is 18 years old is eligible. You  can guess up to 3 times, the last guess is your final answer and entry for the contest.

Would you really like to win that resort package? Read the rest of this blog post on how to predict the peak time and extent of peak traffic. We will tell you everything you need to know to make a smart guess.

I-70 Traffic is Predictable

The flow of peak hour for weekend traffic on I-70 is predictable. If the roads are clear and nobody runs into the ditch while texting, then the the highway begins to fill up around 2 pm and very soon each extra car causes highway speeds to drop. Here is a graph of the delay on the I-70 corridor this past Sunday.

Eastbound I-70 travel delays for February, 2010

While we measure the trip from Vail to Morrison this is useful information for everyone whether you are traveling from Winter Park, Copper Mountain, Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin or Aspen. The most severe delays are on the east side of the tunnel between Georgetown and Idaho Springs; these effect everyone traveling the corridor.

How to Pick the Winning Time

On most days the absolute peak of the rush hour will be between 3 and 5 pm. If there is a lot of snow or a lot of people lingering late on the slopes then the peak will be later in that period. (Traffic will remain heavy and slow until 6 pm and perhaps a little later, but you are trying to guess the peak.)

Weather is the big unknown factor. Obviously, a big storm will make for a longer travel time and, sometimes, a storm will push the delay later in the day. But, a little bit of snow on the highway just as people are leaving the resorts will also have a delaying effect, especially if travelers in a hurry to get home push too hard and cause accidents.

The final factor that you will want to take in account is how many people seem to be in the mountains for the day. If the snow on the slopes is good and everyone in your church is on the slopes, then the peak will be more intense. If it is still good after lunch, then people will wait to the last minute to go home.

Want more information? Scroll on down and take a look at the many earlier blog posts that discuss past traffic jams if you want to get an idea of how consistent this pattern is.

Finally, some of the GoI70 crew will be making their guesses on the GoI70 Messages Twitter channel early in the day. Check them out – they can’t win the prize but they will give you some insight into what the pros think a good guess will be.

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