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Guess the Mess returns this Sunday! Test your knowledge of the driving conditions on I-70 and calculate the effects of weather on the trip home to Denver from a day in the mountains. Guess the time and extent of the greatest delay during eastbound rush hour on Sunday, March 14th.

The guess closest to the time of peak delay will win a pair of lift tickets to Copper Mountain. Four runner up prizes include 2 passes to the Vail Parking Garage, and 2 pair of Teko ski socks.

It is as easy as making a guess and sending a text message or an email. You can enter from your phone or your computer. Here is the short version of how to play Guess the Mess. And for those of you interested in all the details, they are here. (DON’T try to enter by leaving us a comment below this post. If you do that we don’t have anyway to get a hold of you.)

Hint: We’ve been playing Guess the Mess for several weeks now and it is clear that the winning players have read our earlier blog posts on How to Win Guess the Mess.  Good luck!

Update: Geologists who inspected the canyon wall above the rockfall have determined that mitigation is needed before I-70 can be opened. The extent of the work required and the schedule will be determined Tuesday morning. Meanwhile CDOT crews working below the unstable rock managed to break up about half of the 20 boulders that litter the roadway. This is likely to take some time.

Original Post: Around midnight, the mountain came tumbling down and landed smack on the highway along one of the steepest stretches of I-70 in Glenwood Canyon. The highway is closed in both directions as the CDOT engineers clear the boulders from the roadway and assess the damage to the highway. According to CDOT, “I-70 is not expected to open anytime soon.”

That’s not a very specific timeline but take a look at the pictures from the scene. The boulders punched at least one hole in the roadway, smashed guard rails and median barriers in a area where the elevated highway is tight against the canyon walls. It will take some time to move the rock and fix the multiple  sections of damaged roadway. In 2004, a similar rock slide kept the road completely closed for more than 24 hours; repairs took several months. In that slide, only the east side of the highway was damaged. Last night, both sides took a hit.

CDOT estimates that the largest of the 20 boulders is “66 tons.” So we will all wait a while until they can figure out what’s under it and what it takes to patch multiple “holes and dips” in the roadway. The westbound lane being the closest to the mountain took the hardest hit with one hole measuring 20 by 10 feet. The eastbound lane has a hole measuring 6 by 6 feet. Both lanes have multiple “dips” and areas that have rock embedded in the road.

Meanwhile, up above the road there is still a mountain of rock which needs to be inspected before anyone goes sailing down the highway. CDOT is sending several geologists up to take a look but it is a 2 hour hike up the cliff side to the area that broke away.

So if you are headed to Utah for an early spring break or coming home to Denver from Grand Junction you should plan on taking some extra time for your trip. The recommended detour headed west is to take US40 from Empire Junction to Steamboat and on to Craig, then SH13 through Meeker to rejoin I-70 at Rifle. (Or, going east, north on SH13 at Rifle to US40 at Craig then to Empire Junction and I-70.) According to Google search, this adds 105 miles and more than 3 hours to the trip. It is a beautiful ride but these are two lane mountain highways that go slowly through a series of small towns and have many tight turns and steep hills without passing lanes. Count on taking your time or book a seat on a train or plane.

For a while on Monday CDOT was telling people they could head south along US50, 160 and 285, especially if they were headed to a southern destination. Then they closed Monarch Pass on US50 due to heavy weather and multiple accidents. This is a good route if the weather is good and it is a bit shorter. But, it was snowing down south Monday; it is clear in the north. A traveler would be well advised to check the weather anytime before they set out across this southern route. Sometimes it is just better to wait it out, folks.

Update: What a wild night on Sunday. The usual Sunday afternoon rush hour came and went with the peak of the rush hour calculated at 5:16 with a 41 minute delay. We will be contacting the winners and will post the results as soon as they get back to us. Thanks for playing.

Guess the Mess is back! Test your knowledge of the driving conditions on I-70 and calculate the effects of weather on the trip home to Denver from a day in the mountains. Guess the time and extent of the greatest delay during eastbound rush hour on Sunday, March 7th.

The best guess will win a pair of lift tickets to Arapahoe Basin. Runner up prizes include 2 passes to the Vail Parking Garage, 2 pair of Teko ski socks and 2 GoI70 stainless steel water bottles – all useful prizes, not just schwag.

It is as easy as making a guess and sending a text message or an email. You can enter from your phone or your computer. Here is the short version of how to play Guess the Mess. And for those of you interested in all the details, they are here. (DON’T try to enter by leaving us a comment below this post. If you do that we don’t have anyway to get a hold of you.)

Hint: We’ve been playing Guess the Mess for several weeks now and it is clear that the winning players have read our earlier blog posts on How to Win Guess the Mess. Results of the first contest and winning times for last week’s contest are here. Good luck!

We asked Bob Wilson, the Public Relations Manager for the Colorado Department of Transportation, what most seemed to be on people’s mind this season. Without missing a beat he replied, “People want to know why we meter the Eisenhower Tunnel.”  GoI70 and COTRIP – CDOT’s excellent web site – will let you know when there is metering. Here is Bob Wilson’s explanation and some advice on what to do when CDOT is metering the tunnel. Read it and head it.

If you’ve driven Interstate 70 over the last few weekends, you’ve probably noticed there’s been an uptick in traffic along the corridor.  This isn’t surprising since the ski season is kicking into high gear.  However, the heavier traffic, especially eastbound on Sunday afternoons, has required the Colorado Department of Transportation to occasionally stop eastbound traffic at the Eisenhower Tunnel. These stops have been occurring for nearly 20 years but recently, we’ve been getting more questions than usual on why we’re doing it.  Good question with a simple answer that’s not always apparent: we do it for safety.

When we stop vehicles from entering the tunnel, it’s known as metering.  It usually occurs on eastbound I-70, right before you enter the west portal of the tunnel.  We meter when traffic volumes exceed the capacity of the corridor, or when there’s an accident or bad weather causes traffic to back up – or all of those things are occurring at once.  By stopping vehicles from entering the tunnel, it allows the existing back-ups inside of the tunnel to clear out.  Those stops usually last about 15 to 20 minutes because that’s about how long it usually takes to clear traffic from the tunnel.

The tipping point occurs when half the tunnel, about one mile, is at a dead stop.  That’s when we need the existing traffic to clear.  Inside the tunnel, there are only two lanes, no pull-outs or any shoulders.  On top of that, the vehicles are tightly wedged together.  All of that adds up to gridlock.  So if there’s a medical emergency, a fire (vehicle or otherwise), or some other problem in the tunnel or just outside of it, CDOT or some other entity, like the Colorado State Patrol, wouldn’t be able to respond.  Safety is CDOT’s first priority so we can’t let those types of conditions occur.

We also stop traffic – both eastbound and westbound – for other reasons as well.  Trucks carrying hazardous materials aren’t allowed to travel through the tunnel and must use Loveland Pass.  But adverse winter weather frequently closes the pass, requiring hazmat vehicles to travel through the tunnel.  CDOT does not allow hazmat to travel through the tunnel with other vehicles, again for safety.  So, usually at the top of the hour, we escort waiting hazmat loads through the tunnel.  Those closures usually last about 15 minutes.

As we move into March, which usually means more traffic due to additional snow and spring break, eastbound drivers should expect more metering on the weekends, primarily in the afternoon and usually on Sundays.  But please remember, tunnel metering can take place on eastbound and/or westbound I-70 at any time, for accidents, or for daytime avalanche control work.

You can call 511 from your cell phone or check our www.cotrip.org Web site – the information will be on the left side of the home page, under “Travel Alerts.”  We’ll also use the big electronic sign boards on I-70, and along Highways 6 and 9 to let drivers know when we’re metering.

Finally, be prepared before you head up to the tunnel.  If we’re metering, please stop in one of the Summit County towns and hit the restroom (especially if you have little ones with you), eat if you’re hungry and gas up your vehicle if it’s running low.  After you leave Silverthorne, the next services aren’t until the Georgetown area – 25 miles of no go, no fuel, and no food – but more frustration than you need as you finish off your day in Colorado’s high country.

Wet snow on the east side of the divide made the ride back to Denver quite unpredictable on the last day of February. Until mid-afternoon Sunday, it had been a very quiet – though busy – weekend for I-70 travel. As always, a little snow can make a big difference if drivers don’t adjust.

For those of you who were closely following our Guess the Mess contest, most of the afternoon it looked like the peak delay would be around 4:28 which would have made the vast majority of the entrants very close indeed. Then late in the afternoon a series of accidents brought travel to a halt. The peak delay as calculated by the GoI70 computer from CDOT data was at 6:46 when there was a 119 minute delay. In fact none of our players were so pessimistic.

We are contacting this week’s winners and will post their names by Friday. (If you think you have won, feel free to send us an email at games at goI70.com.)

Meanwhile, we have finally finalize the list of winners from our first Guess the Mess contest held on Sunday, February 21st. The first place winner was Eric Gever who won a pair of tickets to Copper Mountain. Sarah Walter took second and a pair of tickets to Arapahoe Basin. Runner-up prizes of a gift certificate to the Dillon Dam Brewery or a pair of Teko Ski socks were claimed by Emily Tracey, Bill Mathe, Ryan Hoelzer, Jim Davies, Marc Jensen and Sean Arkley. Congratulations to all our winners.

We are determined to make it worth your time to read this blog – this week’s first prize in our Guess the Mess contest is a 2 person, 2 day, 2 night ski package to Breckenridge Ski resort – it’s worth $1000.  Here is how to play and win Guess the Mess for Sunday, February 28th.

Playing is Simple

All you have to do is send us text message on our Messages Twitter channel or an email guessing what time on Sunday traffic will be at it’s slowest across the I-70 corridor as measured from Vail to Morrison on the western edge of the Denver metro region. You can enter at any time before 3 pm on Sunday, February 28th.

Tell us the time of the peak delay and how many extra minutes of travel delay exist on the road at that moment. Last week the correct answer was: 4:42 pm & 141 minutes (of extra travel time.)

Send us a message and you are entered. Detailed contest rules are here, but almost everyone who is 18 years old is eligible. You  can guess up to 3 times, the last guess is your final answer and entry for the contest.

Would you really like to win that resort package? Read the rest of this blog post on how to predict the peak time and extent of peak traffic. We will tell you everything you need to know to make a smart guess.

I-70 Traffic is Predictable

The flow of peak hour for weekend traffic on I-70 is predictable. If the roads are clear and nobody runs into the ditch while texting, then the the highway begins to fill up around 2 pm and very soon each extra car causes highway speeds to drop. Here is a graph of the delay on the I-70 corridor this past Sunday.

Eastbound I-70 travel delays for February, 2010

While we measure the trip from Vail to Morrison this is useful information for everyone whether you are traveling from Winter Park, Copper Mountain, Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin or Aspen. The most severe delays are on the east side of the tunnel between Georgetown and Idaho Springs; these effect everyone traveling the corridor.

How to Pick the Winning Time

On most days the absolute peak of the rush hour will be between 3 and 5 pm. If there is a lot of snow or a lot of people lingering late on the slopes then the peak will be later in that period. (Traffic will remain heavy and slow until 6 pm and perhaps a little later, but you are trying to guess the peak.)

Weather is the big unknown factor. Obviously, a big storm will make for a longer travel time and, sometimes, a storm will push the delay later in the day. But, a little bit of snow on the highway just as people are leaving the resorts will also have a delaying effect, especially if travelers in a hurry to get home push too hard and cause accidents.

The final factor that you will want to take in account is how many people seem to be in the mountains for the day. If the snow on the slopes is good and everyone in your church is on the slopes, then the peak will be more intense. If it is still good after lunch, then people will wait to the last minute to go home.

Want more information? Scroll on down and take a look at the many earlier blog posts that discuss past traffic jams if you want to get an idea of how consistent this pattern is.

Finally, some of the GoI70 crew will be making their guesses on the GoI70 Messages Twitter channel early in the day. Check them out – they can’t win the prize but they will give you some insight into what the pros think a good guess will be.

GoI70’s good friend and stellar Jackrabbit Sean caught the weekend in a haiku at 4:27 Sunday afternoon,

Basho by Kinkoku

Blows through the stop-sign,
Flies up the ramp at sixty five,
Walls of cars mock him.

Dig it. If you were on I-70 at that moment you understood.

The weekend of February 20th & 21st provided a good look at what happens when the irresistible force  – new snow on the slopes/time to get home – meets the immovable object – that would be the line of stopped cars just ahead. If you had started out from any of the resorts after a fine afternoon of new snow, you were looking at more than 3 hours of grind for an 1 hour and 20 minute trip. We’ll have a weekend recap up a little later.

If you are checking in to follow up on our 1st Guess the Mess contest, be patient. Peak delay for Sunday was 141 minutes at 4:42 pm. Most of the entrants were very low, but – hey – this is like horseshoes: close counts. We are checking the entries on email and the Messages network, then we will contact the winners and as soon as we have verified their eligibility. We will post the winners right here. Meanwhile you can start studying up for our next contest this weekend. More prizes, more competition.

Beautiful day to be in the mountains.  As Sunday begins, it looks like the morning rush will be less severe than Saturday’s, but evening travelers can expect to encounter afternoon snow falling on stretches of the highway. A winter storm alert is in effect until Monday morning. Come prepared for snowy roads and lots of company.

Good snow in the mountains and on the roads told the story Saturday, February 20th. Travelers on I-70 Saturday had to take their time getting up to the mountains with one of the seasons’ biggest traffic delays going west early in the morning.  Icy conditions on Floyd Hill caused long delays – along the length of the corridor waits of over an hour lasted from 7 am to 9.

The ride back home followed normal patterns for this time of year with the highway filling up and slowing down dramatically between 3 and 4 pm. The jam topped out at 5:34 pm with a 78 minute delay on an 82 mile trip.

Good skiing and riding, and a winter storm alert will make getting the right answer for the GoI70 Guess the Mess contest just a bit more challenging. Enjoy the day in the mountains and be safe!

Guess the Mess is GoI70’s first big-time prize contest and educational game. The rules for playing and winning are set out in detail here. Just post your best guess for the extent and timing of the Sunday peak traffic delay to the GoI70 Messages network either on your computer or your mobile phone.

Smart contestants will want to know the ebb and flow of traffic on I-70. Since we want everyone to have a fair chance, this post will tell you what you need to know to make a smart guess. The prizes are terrific – two pair of lift tickets to Arapahoe Basin and Copper Mountain- and the competition will be hot, read carefully!

Guess the Mess allows you I-70 lovers (and haters) a chance to demonstrate your traffic insight and traveler’s savvy. To win you must predict the extent and timing of the traffic delay at the Sunday eastbound peak along the I-70 corridor from Vail to Morrison. By identifying the height of the jam on Sunday, you will also know the best time to be off the highway, enjoying dinner or shopping in our mountain towns.

I-70 Traffic is Predictable

The flow of peak hour traffic on I-70 is predictable. If the roads are clear and nobody runs into the median while texting his current position, then the the highway begins to fill up around 2 pm and very soon each extra car causes highway speeds to drop.

There are several key points where traffic slows first – the approach to the Eisenhower Tunnel, the bottom of Georgetown hill thru Empire Junction and the narrow turns through Idaho Springs. Speeds on Vail Pass tend to depend as much on the current weather conditions as on the volume of cars. You can watch these spots in near real time on the GoI70 Travel Planning tab or on the GoI70 mobile app at http://goI70.com/mobile.

Presidents Day Traffic

Last Monday was Presidents Day and it is a good example of what to expect this Sunday. The Y axis shows the additional time that it would take someone leaving Vail at the time found along the X axis. The delay is calculated as the traveler makes the 82 mile, 1 hour and 20 minute trip back to Denver’s western gateway.

Put another way the worst moment to leave Vail would have been at 4:15 when your travel time would have been an extra 66 minutes. That’s time enough for dinner and by 6 the delay was only a few minutes.
No, we are not picking on Vail. We just have good data from Colorado Department of Transportation for that trip. Since most of the delay was between Silverthorne and the Twin Tunnels, travelers from all the resorts experienced similar delays. Skipping over Loveland Pass was no answer either – a small avalanche put a stop to that short cut Monday. These are all classic Sunday and holiday traffic dynamics.

A Quick History

The snow was great Sunday, February 22, 2009; the ride home was long.

One more, here is what happened the year before as a Pacific storm came in during the afternoon.

A Few Conclusions

These three examples give a very nice picture of the normal range of traffic delays that might happen this coming Sunday.

1. The slowdown will begin between 2 and 4 pm.
2. The onset is rapid – the highway gets slow in a hurry.
3. The peak comes between 3:30 and 5, unless something happens on the highway.
4. Weather matters. Sometimes a little, sometimes a lot.

Simple, eh! Now check the weather, add your own insight and make a guess. Will the highway be faster or slower than Presidents Day? February 22, 2009? February 24, 2008? What time will it peak? Guess the Mess and have a great day in the mountains.

Traffic Data Courtesy CDOT, processing by Western Analytics

The main thing to know when making travel plans for Presidents Day is that there are a lot of people up in the mountains this weekend. Be prepared for plenty of company on the highway and some significant rush hour delays going east back to Denver. Expect delays to begin before the usual 2 pm beginning for the rush hour.

Road conditions will continue to be snowy and slick on Monday and frequent light snow will return to the mountains after clearing off on Sunday. Traffic Sunday afternoon wasn’t as heavy as was anticipated. What went up the mountain Friday and Saturday, will come back down Monday evening.

The light snow which caused Friday and Saturday’s I-70 travel delays is expected to return Monday. Snow and snow packed roads will be a factor on Monday as travelers make their way back down the mountain in the afternoon. The biggest factor will be the large number of people who want to be at work on Tuesday morning.

Once again, these are classic winter driving conditions: not a blizzard, just some light snow. Keep awake, don’t push too hard and stay up to date with the GoI70 mobile app at http://goI70.com/mobile

CDOT Suggests Taking Alternate Routes

The Colorado Department of Transportation is warning travelers to “(e)xpect major delays on EB I-70 from Vail to Denver… Monday from 9A-7P. Take alternate routes.” Not a bad notion but as most of you know there are only a few alternate routes that apply.
For those of you vacationing in the Breckenridge area and headed to the southern part of the metro area, alternative routes might include taking Colorado 9 to Fairplay and then going to Denver along 285. It’s a lengthy detour but if the delays on I-70 between Silverthorne and Idaho Springs approach an hour, it may be worth the extra miles in time saved.

For people coming home from Keystone and A-Basin going over Loveland Pass is an obvious route and it could conceivably offer time savings for those coming from Breckenridge over Swan Mountain Road. But Loveland Pass is not for the faint of heart or the mountain newcomer. You should also be aware that Loveland Pass is frequently closed because of visibility issues, snow or avalanche obstruction.

We can not recommend using US 6 as an all purpose alternative to I-70 on a heavy travel day like Presidents Day. It goes roughly the same place as I-70 and many people will imagine that it is moving faster than the highway when they look over to the side of the road during a particularly nasty moment of interstate stop and go. But, many, many locals use US 6, so it tends to reach equilibrium with I-70 pretty quickly. Beyond that it is a two lane highway thru a twisty canyon. If it is snowing on I-70, it will be snowing in Clear Creek Canyon.

The Presidents Day Weekend So Far
The Friday rush out of town was heavy enough to cause significant delays. Saturday saw heavy traffic and long delays in both directions as travelers encountered snow, slick roads and strong winds at the higher elevations.

Wet, snow packed and, sometimes, icy roads turned the Saturday morning ride up the mountain to the ski resorts into a minor epic .In the morning travelers headed west encountered delays of over an hour getting up the Georgetown Hill, thru Silver Plume and up to the Eisenhower Tunnel. Just west of Frisco, a multi-car pile up slowed traffic for a time as well. The snow continued off and on all day as did the westbound delays.

Eastbound traffic on Saturday followed the classic rush hour pattern beginning soon after 2pm as skiers and boarders left the resorts. Delays of over an hour extended from 2:30 pm to around 6 when highway travel smoothed out and speeds returned to near normal.

Sunday afternoon the highways were tame and delays were a fraction of those encountered most Sundays. It appeared that fewer travelers than predicted made the trip back to Denver on Sunday.